NHL best bets: Stars vs. Avalanche Game 6 odds, preview, prediction for Fri. 5/17

Stars vs. Avalanche Odds

Friday, May 17, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger has been given the unenviable task of holding back the Avalanche's superb offensive group, and the results have been mixed. Oettinger has a 2.72 GAA and an .899 save percentage through five contests in this series, but interestingly, his best work thus far has come in Colorado, where he has stopped 52-of-54 shots (.963 save percentage) en route to two straight victories. That might seem weird, but it's in character for Oettinger, who had an .898 save percentage in 28 home contests during the regular season compared to a .912 save percentage in 26 road games. Perhaps the series returning to Denver on Friday is actually good news for the netminder.

The Stars are a superb road team overall. They had the best away record (26-10-5) in the regular season in terms of total points, not only because Oettinger stepped up in those situations, but also because of Dallas' attack thriving. The Stars ranked second offensively with 3.46 goals per game on the road during the regular season.

That ties into Dallas' overall strength too. Although Oettinger isn't having his best campaign, he's still a top-end goaltender capable of stealing games — but he usually doesn't have to. Even with Roope Hintz questionable for Game 6, the Stars have a varied attack, highlighted by Jason Robertson, who will be entering this contest on a five-game scoring streak in which he's provided seven assists. Defensemen Miro Heiskanen is also red hot, supplying four goals and eight points across his past five outings.

Collectively, Dallas has managed at least three goals in each contest in this series, so if Oettinger has an even passable performance in Game 6, this series could be over.

Colorado Avalanche

Of course, part of the reason Dallas has found offensive success against the Avalanche has nothing to do with Dallas' roster. Not to diminish the Stars' efforts, but part of the blame has to be put on Avalanche goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, who has a 3.14 GAA and an .880 save percentage in five games this series.

Those kinds of struggles are unfortunately nothing new for Georgiev, who had an .897 save percentage in the regular season and is at .886 through 10 playoff outings this year. In terms of Goals Saved Above Expected in the playoffs, Georgiev is also at minus-3.2, which suggests he's provided worse than average goaltending after factoring out the players in front of him. The only goaltenders who have done worse than Georgiev by that metric are Connor Hellebuyck with the now-eliminated Jets and Edmonton's Stuart Skinner, who recently lost his starting job because of his struggles.

Georgiev does have his moments too, but he's not reliable, so the Avalanche will need to depend on what got them into the playoffs in the first place: the offense.

Being without Valeri Nichushkin, who has returned to the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, is noteworthy, especially after he provided nine goals and 10 points through eight postseason contests. But Colorado will still deploy Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Artturi Lehkonen, who have each provided at least three goals and 11 points through 10 playoff outings. Casey Mittelstadt, who was acquired from Buffalo on March 6, has also proven to be a great postseason performer with three goals and nine points. Jonathan Drouin has done well too, supplying two assists across two contests since returning from a lower-body injury.

As noted above, Oettinger seems to do well on the road, but the Avalanche have enough firepower to still give him a tough time.

Stars vs. Avalanche

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Avalanche demonstrated clearly in Game 5 that they will press on even with their backs against the wall, but will that be enough to stave off elimination for a second game in a row? I'm not so sure. Oddsmakers are treating Colorado as mild favorites, but given how strong of a road team the Stars are coupled with the unreliability of Georgiev, I don't see the Avalanche as a true favorite.

Dallas should come out fighting after narrowly missing its first chance to advance to the Western Conference Finals, and I suspect they'll edge out Colorado on Friday. I'm going to recommend taking Dallas on the moneyline, but given the strength of these two offenses, I think the Over 6.5 is a good alternative if you don't share my optimism for the Stars.

Pick: Dallas Stars ML (+104 via BetRivers | Play down to -110)