Why the Toronto Blue Jays Need to Add Another Bullpen Arm

A Comparison of High-Quality Bullpen Arms

How did Toronto’s bullpen compare to the other American League playoff teams? Table 2 has some numbers.

I arbitrarily set the high-quality reliever bar at the top-third percentile rankings for various metrics. I then counted the number of relievers that surpassed the top-third percentile threshold. The highlights are as follows:

• The only metric that Blue Jays’ bullpen had more than two qualifying relievers was in BB%.
• Other than Tampa, Toronto had the fewest bullpen arms with average fastball velocities in the top third of all qualified relievers.
• Generally, Cleveland’s bullpen was the best of the six American League playoff teams. The reliever corps of Houston and Seattle were not far behind.
• Toronto’s reliever collection was relatively sub-par in terms of xERA, K%, K%-BB%, Barrel% and Barrel%+BB%-K%.

Table 3 provides detailed percentile rankings of Toronto relievers. I included full-season data for Anthony Bass and Zach Pop to project how the bullpen could perform in 2023. The notable points are as follows:

• Jordan Romano is the only reliever with a fastball that exceeds the 55^th percentile velocity. Unlike many opponents, the Blue Jays’ 2022 bullpen was not a cauldron of fastball flamethrowers.
• Tim Mayza had a disappointing 2022 campaign. In relative terms, his xERA was poor (27^th percentile), and his K%-BB% and Barrel%+BB%-K% were median-ish. Better performance is needed from Toronto’s sole lefty out of the pen.
• Yimi Garcia was a solid arm for the Blue Jays.
• It would appear that the Toronto bullpen days are numbered for Trent Thornton and Trevor Richards.
• As I noted earlier, Swanson’s 2022 percentile rankings are impressive.

Toronto’s Bullpen Relative Performance

Some MLB observers have opined that the addition of Swanson is sufficient for the 2023 season. The argument is that adding Swanson and complete seasons from Bass and Pop will make for a good bullpen in 2023. In other words, if Swanson, Bass and Pop were on the 2022 Opening Day roster, Toronto’s bullpen would look much better. Therefore, one more high-quality bullpen arm is not needed at this time. Another opinion expressed by some is that Toronto’s bullpen was overworked in 2022, and that was a significant factor in their performance.

Concerning the Swanson, Bass and Pop additions and their impact on the bullpen, I present Table 4. The notable points are as follows:

• Regarding xERA, Toronto’s performance (4.20) was well behind the pens of Cleveland, Houston, New York and Seattle.
• Toronto’s FIP (4.03) was noticeably inferior to the four teams mentioned above.
• Concerning xFIP, the Cleveland and Houston reliever corps were considerably better than Toronto’s (3.89).

Okay, let’s play the Swanson, Bass and Pop what-if game. What would the same performance metrics look like if these players were on Toronto’s 2022 Opening Day roster? Please refer to Table 4’s Toronto Adjusted data. The highlights are as follows:

• The Toronto Adjusted xFIP compares more favourably with the other five teams than the Toronto data.
• However, the Blue Jays’ xERA (3.88) and FIP (3.67) remain notably inferior to the marks posted by Cleveland, Houston and New York.

Therefore, the 2022 theoretical full-season of the Swanson, Bass, and Pop additions would have made the 2022 bullpen better, but more was needed to locate the Blue Jays pen in the same Cleveland-Houston-New York performance neighbourhood.

“Okay, hold on,” exclaims some MLB observers. Toronto used 27 relievers, some of whom were terrible, negatively affecting Toronto’s 2022 results. How did the top eight (by innings) compare to the other playoff-bound teams? The argument is based on the view that playoff teams will use eight relievers in the postseason.

Yes, there is a table that addresses that issue. To calculate the data for each team’s top eight, I ranked the relievers by highest to lowest innings pitched and selected the top eight. Check out Table 5. The highlights are as follows:

• Toronto’s 3.84 xERA lags the performance levels of the other five teams.
• The FIP scores posted by Cleveland, Houston, New York and Seattle bullpens are considerably superior to Toronto’s 3.68.
• Concerning the what-if scenario (Toronto Adjusted), the other five teams produced much better xERA scores than Toronto Adjusted’s 3.51.
• The FIP marks of Cleveland and Houston are significantly superior to the 3.26 FIP of Toronto Adjusted.

Regarding the opinion that an excess workload was a significant factor in the mediocre performance of Toronto’s bullpen, there are two points to make.  First, Toronto’s reliever corps did record the seventh-most innings (613) in the American League in 2022. However, Baltimore’s bullpen had the fourth-most innings (631) and posted better xERA (3.81) and FIP (3.65) marks than Toronto’s (xERA – 4.20; FIP – 4.03). Also, in 2021, Tampa’s bullpen logged the most innings among American League bullpens and the lowest FIP.

The second point is that despite a middle-of-the-pack workload, Toronto’s Field Managers did an excellent job distributing the workload. I examined the second-half workload in this article; the first-half workload distribution can be found here. The bullpen workload was a minor contributor to Toronto’s mediocre performance. In summary, the group was not good.

Performance Conclusion

I think Toronto’s 2022 bullpen was inferior to the Cleveland, Houston, New York and Seattle bullpens. Even in the Swanson-Bass-Pop what-if scenario, Toronto’s Adjusted bullpen would have lagged the xERA and FIP marks posted by the top-tier American League reliever corps. Furthermore, the data in Table 2 demonstrates that Toronto had few top-tier bullpen arms in 2022.

The acquisition of Swanson ups the number of high-quality relievers, but he alone, plus full seasons from Bass and Pop, are not enough to elevate the Blue Jays’ bullpen into the Cleveland-Houston-New York-Seattle sphere. It is conceivable that the quality and depth of the Blue Jays lineup and starting pitching rotation are sufficient to easily make the American League playoffs with the bullpen as currently constructed. That is a debatable point, but not unreasonable. However, with the team-bullpen differences revealed in Table 2 and the modified bullpen-management tactics in the playoffs, an additional quality bullpen arm by the trade deadline is a must for the Blue Jays if they want to keep pace with the top American League bullpens.

Bullpen Construction

Before considering some bullpen candidates, I believe an optimal bullpen construction includes pitchers that have the following attributes:

• High-velocity pitches
• Swing-and-miss abilities
• High K% and K%-BB%
• Low BB%
• The ability to induce soft contact on batted balls
• High-leverage arms that can be used in a high-leverage situation that may occur before the ninth inning (think Andrew Miller or Rafael Montero)
• Lefthanded and righthanded relievers

Having multiple bullpen arms that can accurately be described as having more than one of the first six characteristics is very good. Not every reliever will have all of these characteristics. However, think back to Table 3 and remember how few Toronto relievers were in the top-third percentile in the various metrics.

Candidates to Consider

I examined the 2022 reliever data for candidates to join the Blue Jays’ bullpen, but I eliminated relievers on teams that would unlikely trade a top bullpen arm. Furthermore, I removed Liam Hendriks, who is in a cancer battle. Best wishes to Liam for a complete and speedy recovery.

Table 6 contains the names and their percentile rankings; Table 7 shows how each reliever would check the boxes found in Table 2. The acquisition cost would vary from the highest price (Devin Williams) to the lowest (Matt Bush).

Imagine the flexibility afforded to John Schneider by having a two-headed closer (Romano and Williams) and using Swanson in an Andrew Miller role. Alternatively, Romano and Swanson are the closer tandem, and Bush is the flex reliever.

Some internal candidates can potentially step into the role described in the previous paragraph. Those candidates are Nate Pearson and Yosver Zulueta. Both have high-velocity fastballs and above-average K% scores. It would be a long shot if one of these pitchers could fill the role described, but it would be worth it if it worked. If none of these pitchers perform to the level needed, the trade market will remain open to the Blue Jays.

The Last Word

From a performance perspective, Toronto’s 2022 bullpen lagged behind the top-tier levels produced by Cleveland, Houston, New York and Seattle. The acquisition of Swanson, plus full seasons from Bass and Pop, have bolstered the quality of the Blue Jays’ reliever corps. However, another high-leverage, high-quality reliever is needed. This reliever will hopefully have attributes generally lacking in the current bullpen corps (high-velocity fastball, swing-and-miss, etc.). Such a reliever could pay dividends during the regular season, but especially in the postseason.